1 million more people in UK face poverty this winter, analysis shows
More than 1 million more people will be forced into poverty this winter, pushing UK deprivation levels to their highest for two decades – even if the government freezes energy prices at current levels, according to a conservative thinktank.
The Legatum Institute, led by the Conservative peer and former government adviser Philippa Stroud, estimated that even if the energy price cap was held at its summer rate of £1,971, another 1.3 million people would slide below the relative poverty line compared with pre-pandemic rates.
However, Legatum said government intervention to freeze energy prices – expected this week – was essential to avert what would otherwise be an even more drastic “once in a generation” explosion in poverty.
The Social Metrics Commission measure of poverty, introduced in 2018 by a cross-party group of experts chaired by Lady Stroud, goes beyond a simple measure of relative income by also taking into account core living costs such as housing, childcare and the extra costs of disability. The government initially indicated it would adopt the measure as a formal measure but later dropped its plans.
The institute estimated that if ministers failed to tackle gas and electricity prices, and the energy price cap rose as projected to £3,549 in October and again in January to £5,300, then numbers in poverty in the UK would increase to 16.65 million, compared with the 2019-20 rate of 13.9 million.
The analysis said as well as moving to blunt the impact on consumers of soaring energy prices, ministers should also increase universal credit to help the worst off.
With living standards collapsing, many people on low incomes would still struggle with rising costs in other areas such as food, clothing, rent and transport,
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