Since its late reversal lower from the more than one-month highs that Bitcoin (BTC) posted early during Monday trade in the $28,600 area, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been consolidating in the mid-$27,000s on Tuesday.
Optimism about Bitcoin’s history of posting strong gains in October and short position liquidations were cited as behind Monday’s rally, before macro headwinds took over and pushed prices lower again.
US yields, particularly at the long end of the duration curve, have spiked higher in the past two days following stronger-than-expected US economic data – data released on Tuesday showed an unexpected jump in US job openings, signaling continued strength in the US labor market (making the Fed’s inflation fight more difficult) and ISM Manufacturing PMI data was also stronger than expected.
Higher yields on risk-free assets like US government bonds reduce the incentive for investors to hold riskier or non-yielding assets, of which Bitcoin is both.
As long as US yields keep pushing higher, this will be a headwind for the BTC price.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, US ISM Services PMI data and the official US jobs report will be the main things to watch on the macro front, with risks seemingly tilted towards stronger-than-expected data that pushes yields ever higher.
Other themes to watch include the fallout of disgraced former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial, which just begun, and the tepid launch of the first Ether futures ETFs in the US, which have seen very low trading volumes thus far.
With Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) both stuck within recent ranges, traders with a higher tolerance for risk will likely continue to look for opportunities in the highly illiquid shitcoin/meme coin
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