Bitcoin derivatives data forecasts sub-$30K BTC price heading into Friday’s $800M options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $32,000 on May 31, but the excitement lasted less than 4 hours after the resistance level proved to be tougher than expected. The $32,300 level represented a 20% increase from the May 12 swing low at $27,000 and it provided the necessary hope for bulls to buy some $34,000 and higher call options.
The fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers market on June 1 after BTC dumped 7.6% in less than 6 hours and pinned the price below $30,000. The negative move coincided with the United States Federal Reserve starting the process of scaling down its $9 trillion balance sheet.
On June 2, former BitMEX exchange CEO Arthur Hayes argued that the Bitcoin bottom in May could have been a strong signal. Using on-chain data, Hayes predicts strong support at $25,000 given that $69,000 marked this cycle’s all-time high, a 64% drawdown.
Even though analysts might issue rosy price predictions, the threat of regulation continues to cap investor optimism and another blow came on June 2 when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed suit against Gemini Trust Co for alleged misleading statements in 2017 regarding the self-certification evaluation of a Bitcoin futures contract.
On June 7, a bill to ban digital assets as payment was introduced in the Russian parliament. The bill loosely defines digital financial assets as “electronic platforms,” which can be recognized as the subjects of the national payment system and obliged to submit to the central bank registry.
The open interest for the June 10 options expiry is $800 million but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $32,000 on May 31 because their
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