Bitcoin ETF in Q1 and Bitcoin Price All-Time High in Q4: VanEck Predictions 2024
VanEck, a prominent investment management firm, has released a set of 15 cryptocurrency predictions for the year 2024, casting a spotlight on potential significant developments in the digital asset space.
The firm’s report offers a detailed outlook, highlighting key predictions such as the anticipated launch of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the first quarter and a projected record high for Bitcoin prices in the fourth quarter. The report also projects an upsurge in NFT activities and a possible shift in Binance‘s dominance in spot trading.
VanEck predicts the eventual launch of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, coinciding with an expected U.S. recession. They project substantial inflows into these ETFs, exceeding $2.4 billion in the first quarter, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin prices above $30,000.
Drawing on historical analogies with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, VanEck estimates initial inflows of around $1 billion shortly after the ETFs’ launch, increasing to $2.4 billion within a quarter. Over the first two years, they anticipate a surge in inflows up to $40.4 billion, driven by Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative to traditional hard money assets and a reduction in transaction costs compared to current retail trading fees, such as Coinbase’s transaction fee of roughly 2.5%.
VanEck also anticipates a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value in late 2024. They predict Bitcoin will reach an all-time high on Nov. 9, fueled by political changes, specifically citing the potential election of Donald Trump as a catalyst for a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S. This forecast aligns with historical patterns of Bitcoin’s price peaking exactly three years apart, as observed in 2017
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