China retail sales beat forecasts in October while real estate slump worsens

cnbc.com:

BEIJING — China on Friday reported strong growth in retail sales and a steep decline in real estate investment in October, signaling that the country's recent stimulus push has already bolstered certain sectors of its flagging economy.

Retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. That was above the 3.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, and a pickup from 3.2% growth in September.

Industrial production rose by 5.3% from a year ago, missing expectations of 5.6% growth. While fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by 3.4% from a year ago, slower than the 3.5% forecast.

Investment in real estate for the January to October period fell by 10.3% from a year ago, steeper than the 10.1% drop seen in the January to September period, as the country's property slump worsens.

It was the sharpest decline since a 10.9% dive was reported for the year-to-date period ending August 2021, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Fu Linghui, at a press conference on Friday, reiterated China's pledge in late September to halt the real estate decline, and described the sector as seeing «active improvement,» according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

Looking ahead, real estate investment will likely stabilize and recover slightly in the next 12 to 18 months, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.

He noted that sales of new properties narrowed their decline on a year-to-date basis in October versus September. The value of new properties sold fell by 20.9% in the first ten months of the year, better than the 22.7% drop as of September.

Meanwhile, infrastructure and manufacturing