CNBC Fed Survey

cnbc.com:

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump.  But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

«We've had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy,» said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. «Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing.»

«The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,'' said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.

The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.

»The risks to consumers' spending are skewed to the downside," said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. «Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is