Covid has been an easy scapegoat for economic disruption, but Brexit is biting

theguardian.com:

It’s two years since the UK left the European Union, slightly more than one since it exited the single market and customs union. Yet, as one prominent Brexit supporter has pointed out, no one seems to have starved to death. A low bar, admittedly, but one takes what one can in these pandemic-ravaged times. However, while we may still have food on the shelves, Brexit has already begun to act as a drag on the UK economy. It seems clear this will persist, though it’s less clear as to what implications this will have for the ongoing Brexit debate.

Think back to the febrile atmosphere of the referendum and its aftermath. There was plenty of loose talk on all sides. Claims such as the £350m on the bus or George Osborne’s warning of the need for an emergency budget in the event of a vote to leave were generally overblown. And remainer rhetoric provided an opening for Brexiters. In response to 2017 warnings about a Brexit “cliff edge”, a spokesperson for the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies remarked acidly that “according to project fear we should be holed up in a post-apocalyptic wasteland in threadbare clothes eating tinned food by now”.

Yet Brexit was already beginning to bite. Well before the date of departure, work by John Springford at the Centre for European Reform showed that UK GDP was lagging behind its expected level. By September 2021, he had concluded that UK goods trade was 11.2%, or £8.5bn, lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union. Indeed, one reason the much-vaunted “cliff edge” failed to materialise is that we have been slithering down it for a while, and consequently have less far to fall.

And this is starting to hit home. Ian Mulheirn at the Tony Blair