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Derby’s Take: Fed Paper Sees Scant Predictive Value in Key Treasury Yield Relationship
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The bond market’s focus on the difference between the yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes as a barometer on the outlook for the U.S. economy and risk of recession is misplaced, a Federal Reserve paper released Friday said.
The paper by Fed economists Eric Engstrom and Steven Sharpe took stock of the relationship between these securities as the difference between their yields has been narrowing, standing at around 15 basis points in trading on Monday afternoon, versus 160 basis points a year ago, amid risks this spread...
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