The world has changed on energy prices, so our policy response must also change. That is what every politician should understand after the confirmation that typical bills are heading for £3,600 in October and £5,000-plus in January. Whatever they thought they came into politics for, whatever pet projects or prejudices they have, must be set aside. Their task is to avert the winter of discontent ahead.
Gas prices are shooting up just as we need it to keep our homes warm: half of annual gas consumption happens between January and March. The result will be average winter bills of £500 a month, three times those of last year. Monthly energy costs will peak at more than £700 in January. Anyone who thinks low- and middle-income Britain can afford this hasn’t noticed the living standards stagnation of the last 15 years that has left low-income households spending 59% of their budgets on essentials (up from 52% in 2006).
Alongside energy, the cost of food is on the rise. This is a heating and eating squeeze the like of which none of us has seen before. Thousands will turn off their heating or have it shut off. Millions will run up arrears, dragging down their mental health and credit ratings.
The government’s approach has been to let prices rise (incentivising people to cut consumption) while providing £30bn of support, including via the benefits system, to help pay rising bills. This is what economic textbooks and the IMF recommend and it was the right answer when we faced bills of £2,000. But we are no longer living in that world. The scale of the coming catastrophe means we will need a different policy response. Both Conservative leadership candidates, and opposition parties, have recognised that more will need to be done but
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