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Economic Forecasting and the Goldberg Variations
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wsj.comIn a contraption for emptying ashtrays dreamed up by the late cartoonist Rube Goldberg, the bright full moon (A) causes two lovebirds to become romantic, (B) causing their perch to tip (C) and pull a string, (D) upsetting a can, (E) which sprinkles water on a woolen shirt, (F) which after several more steps eventually leads to a fuse (M) getting lit, causing a rocket to shoot out the window disposing of ashes.
As anybody who has tinkered with building even a rudimentary version of a Goldberg machine knows, getting to the point where the perch actually tips would be a minor miracle. But year-ahead forecasts often look a bit like Goldberg machines—and when it comes to 2022, the forecasts might be even more complex.
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