Ethereum 'March 2020' fractal hints at price bottom — But ETH bears predict 50% crash
Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), eyes a strong bullish reversal after losing 25% from its November high of $1,675, according to a bottom fractal spotted by independent market analyst Wolf.
Wolf compares Ethereum's multi-month downtrend between May 2018 and March 2020 with a similar but relatively shorter correction after July 2022. If the move repeats, that means the price of Ether has bottomed in November 2022, according to the analyst, as shown below.
Wolf draws cues from March 2020's Ethereum price crash triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic — a black swan event. Similarly, ETH price was pushed down in November 2022 due to another black swan — the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
But ETH/USD rebounded aggressively after the March 2020 crash, boosted by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts that injected more money into the economy, part of which flowed into the crypto market.
Similarly, in November 2022, Ether's modest recovery post-FTX "black swan" coincides with growing expectations of the Fed slowing its rate hikes. Thus, Ether has a good chance at repeating the March 2020 fractal to new monthly highs.
Moreover, independent market analyst, Cold Blood Shiller, sees a "clear breakout point" on Ethereum's daily chart, namely its Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Relative Strength Index (RSI). Both indicators appear to have been flipping bullish recently, as shown below.
Nevertheless, Ether is currently down 75% from its record in November 2021 with the market seeing multiple bull traps since.
Market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy notes the possible formation of a similar bull trap in the current miniuptrend, which he argues risks exhaustion near a multi-month descending resistance trendline.
A decisive pullback from the
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