Global food price fears as Ukraine farmers forced to reduce crop planting

theguardian.com:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is leading to a dramatic decline in crops planted by farmers in the country this spring, with fears for domestic and international food security.

Known for its fertile soils, Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, barley, sunflower and maize, in particular to north Africa.

However, farmers and analysts have told the Guardian that planting, harvest and export have all been disrupted by a lack of fertiliser, low or no fuel supplies for tractors, closure of ports and military activity.

At least one-third of the land normally used for spring crops such as maize and sunflower is likely to go unplanted. Furthermore, one-third of the normal wheat harvest from the crop planted last autumn could be lost.

A small amount of wheat held in storage is reportedly being exported by rail and road via Poland and Romania, but this is a “tiny fraction” of what is normally exported via the Black Sea ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv before the invasion, said analysts. Ukrainian officials have said other export routes via the Danube River, railways and road are restricted by inadequate facilities and, in the case of railway, the difference in track and stock width between Europe and Ukraine.

“I think we’re looking at potentially several months [after a cessation of the war] before export levels could be returned to normal,” said Mike Lee, who runs the Black Sea Crop Forecasts service. He said ships may struggle to get insurance cover and permission to re-enter Black Sea ports, with mines also needing to be cleared. Global cereal prices rose to a new all-time high in February due to the disruption to exports. The World Food Programme, the UN agency that provides emergency supplies to countries in conflict or experiencing