How War in Ukraine Is Increasing Inflationary Pressure Across World’s Regions
Alfred Kammer is the Director of the European Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Jihad Azour is the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF; Abebe Aemro Selassie is the Director of the African Department at the IMF; Ilan Goldfajn was Governor of the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) from May 2016 until February 2019; Changyong Rhee is the Director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the IMF.____
Beyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire global economy will feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation.
Impacts will flow through three main channels. One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy will push up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand. Two, neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee flows. And three, reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets.
Russia and Ukraine are major commodities producers, and disruptions have caused global prices to soar, especially for oil and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia make up 30% of global exports, reaching a record.
Beyond global spillovers, countries with direct trade, tourism, and financial exposures will feel additional pressures. Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and more inflation pressure, though some exporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefit from higher prices.
Steeper price increases
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