Is Brexit working? Four key tests

theguardian.com:

Is Brexit working? For diehards on each side, the answer is obvious. But for those who are interested in objective analysis, it’s vital to have a way at least to ask the question. That’s why we at UK in a Changing Europe set out, four key “tests” by which to assess the consequences of leaving the EU.

We observed that, while Remainers and Leavers disagreed vehemently about whether to remain in the EU, there was considerable common ground about what we, as a country, should be seeking to achieve. Generally, both sides argued that Britain should remain an open, outward-looking country; that both economic growth and social cohesion mattered; that we should invest in, and improve, our public services; and that we need to maintain Britain’s international influence, while preserving democratic control of our own destiny. Remainers and Leavers didn’t disagree about these objectives; the issue was whether Brexit would make achieving them easier or harder.

We concluded that Brexit could be judged a success – on its own terms – if, on balance, it passed the following tests. So what’s the story so far?

Overall, the UK’s economic performance has been disappointing, but not disastrous, since the referendum, and since the implementation of the Trade and Co-operation Agreement with the EU. Three factors have weighed on growth – the sharp fall in sterling immediately after the referendum which has not been recovered, the continuing poor levels of business investment, driven in part by Brexit, and, since the implementation of the TCA, reduced trade.

The impact of the pandemic makes it very difficult to quantify these effects, but there is a clear consensus among independent economists that Brexit has made us poorer. The Office of Budget