Is The Bull Market Over Before The Bitcoin Halving? Glassnode Report
Bitcoin’s latest price dip to under $60,000 has raised questions as to whether the asset’s spectacular bull run this year could be ending earlier than expected.
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check, however, says bull have very little to worry about.
In a video analysis posted on Friday, Check reviewed various on-chain metrics concerning short-term Bitcoin holders, who first acquired their coins less than five months prior.
Firstly, Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV ratio is now re-approaching 1.0, meaning its unrealized profit and loss have reached a break-even point. This level can serve as support after a bull market dip, but also major resistance during bear markets when most Bitcoin holders are underwater.
“Little undercuts are good,” said Check. “In 2023 we had several of these retests. If we assume this is a resilient uptrend, we should expect the short-term holder cost basis to hold, somewhere in that $58,000 to $59,000 region. “
Similarly, short-term holder SOPR has also recently dipped beneath 1.0, meaning that short-term holders are now beginning to realize more losses than profits. Should SOPR fall significantly under this level without resurfacing, it may be a sign of a sustained bear market to come.
As of this week, short-term holders realized losses have spiked substantially – a sign that new buyers were panic selling at a loss amid news of rising conflict between Iran and Israel.
“This is essentially what you do want to see, as a contrarian,” Check added. “As a contrarian, you kind of want to see people doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.”
Days ago, Check noted that Bitcoin’s price may transition into being “top-heavy” if its price moves below $58,800. The asset trades for $64,000 at writing time.
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