Maybe the US is in a recession, but small businesses don’t know it

theguardian.com:

Are we in a recession? Because if we are, it’s a very strange one.

Sure, we’ve had two quarters of negative economic growth. Manufacturing demand is shrinking. Construction and housing market activity has slowed. Tech companies are contracting. Financial services and real estate firms are laying people off. Inflation and energy costs remain stubbornly high, interest rates are rising and the stock market is off 18% from the beginning of the year. Just Google “recession” and you’ll find that the housing market is in one, major banks and investors are warning of one and Europe is heading for one. Over 80 financial advisers say a recession “is coming” and one bigwig investor believes that it’s going to be a “whopper”.

But hold on for a moment.

Maybe we’re in a recession. Or maybe it’s coming. But when there are recessions – or even the strong prospect of one – companies lay people off. That’s not happening, is it? Hiring has continued to rise. The unemployment rate remains at historically low levels. Job openings are close to an all-time high. And here’s the real shock: the majority of small businesses in the United States – who employ more than half of the nation’s workforce – are not only looking to hire, but are struggling to find employees, according to recent survey responses released by the National Federation of Independent Businesses and employment data from the HR firm Paychex.

“Small business are still not showing strong recession signals,” Paychex’s CEO told CNBC last week.

So why are businesses – particularly small businesses – looking for workers, instead of laying them off?

First off, it’s getting harder and harder to generalize about the United States’ economy. There are 350 million people and 30m small businesses