While Russia's invasion of Ukraine is certain to dominate an upcoming NATO summit in Madrid, the alliance's new Strategic Concept -- its main working document for the next decade -- is having to contend with Russia and China's growing influence in Africa.
As the host of the summit taking place from Tuesday to Thursday, Spain wants to emphasize its proximity to Africa as it lobbies for a greater focus on Europe's southern flank in a new document outlining NATO's vision of its security challenges and tasks.
Spain and other member nations are quietly pushing the Western alliance to consider how the likes of Russia's Wagner mercenaries are spreading Kremlin's influence to the continent, while China quietly strengthens its own presence.
The Strategic Concept is NATO's most important document after the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, which contained the key provision holding that an attack on one member is viewed as an attack upon all. The security assessment is updated roughly every decade to reset the West's security agenda.
The current version, approved in Lisbon in 2010, stated the risk of a conventional war on NATO territory was "low." It did not explicitly mention concerns about instability in Africa.
At the time, the alliance viewed apathy as its biggest military threat. US complaints that some European members were not paying their due featured heavily in summit talks.
Fast forward a dozen years, and the view looks very different from NATO headquarters in Brussels. After Russia brought war close to the alliance's eastern borders, NATO has worked to provide Ukraine with an assortment of more powerful weapons and to avoid the very real risk of getting drawn into the fighting.
But there appears to be a consensus among NATO
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