Previous Cycles Show Bitcoin Could Hit a New All-time High in 2024 with Trend Extending Into 2025
CCData’s analysis in their July 2 H2 Outlook Report suggests that Bitcoin has yet to display its anticipated parabolic growth this cycle based on past halving cycles, with the current trend potentially extending into 2025.
Bitcoin saw major growth this year, hitting its all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 in March.
It has since experienced a downward correction, with its current price at $60,463. Overall, BTC appreciated 97% over the past year.
The report highlights that Bitcoin’s price action “remained largely range-bound” between $72,000 and $59,000 over the three months following the fourth halving on April 19.
However, equity indices, including the SPX and NASDAQ, have recorded all-time highs.
Additionally, there was a recent notable drop in trading activity on centralized exchanges.
These facts resulted in some speculation that the market may have topped this cycle already.
However, CCData offers a different perspective. The researchers found that historical trends have shown that a period of price expansion follows a halving event.
This period can last anywhere from 366 days (as seen in 2014) to 548 days (2021) before producing a cycle top.
Each halving cycle tends to be longer than the last, reflecting the increasing maturity of the asset class and reduced volatility.
CCData observed a similar drop in trading activity on centralized exchanges for nearly two months after the halving event in previous cycles. “This suggests that the current cycle could expand further into 2025,” they said.
Additionally, two out of three previous cycles witnessed positive Bitcoin price returns exceeding 50% within 180 days post-halving, with the 2016 cycle being the exception.
There are also “seasonality effects” to take into account and low trading
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