Sharp Bitcoin price move expected as volatility hangs at record lows and sellers are ‘exhausted’

cointelegraph.com:

Bitcoin’s (BTC) lack of volatility has been the dominant discussion point among traders for the past two weeks and the current sideways trading within the $18,000 to $25,000 range has been in effect for 126 days. A majority of traders agree that a significant price move is imminent, but exactly what are they basing this thesis on? 

Let’s take a look at three data points that predict a spike in Bitcoin volatility.

According to Glassnode research, the “Bitcoin market is primed for volatility,” with on- and off-chain data flashing multiple signals. The researchers note that 1-week realized volatility has fallen to 28%, a level that is typically followed by a sharp price move.

Exploration of Bitcoin’s aSOPR, a metric which “measures an average realized profit/loss multiple for spent coins on any given day” shows:

In addition to the divergence between the price and the adjusted SOPR, short-term Bitcoin holders are approaching their breakeven level as the short-term holder SOPR approaches 1.0.

This is significant because a reading of 1.0 during a bear market has historically functioned as a level of resistance and there is a tendency for traders to exit their positions near breakeven.

If the aSPOR were to crest above 1.0 and turn the level to support, it could be an early sign of a fledgling trend change within the market.

Multiple technical analysis indicators are also flashing a signal that a strong directional move is in the cards, a point noted by independent market analyst Big Smokey.

According to the analyst:

Bitcoin price range, SuperGuppy and Bollinger Bands are getting real tight. ETH looks the same. You know what that means. pic.twitter.com/e7s6ScG7jz

Crypto research firm Delphi Digital recently issued a similar