The South African Reserve Bank has fired the starting gun on monetary policy normalization, but economists do not expect the hiking cycle to be plain sailing.
The SARB on Thursday hiked its main repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% from its record low amid growing concerns about upside inflation risks. The central bank raised its consumer price index forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% in 2021, and from 4.2% to 4.3% in 2022.
The hike marks the first step to unwinding 275 basis points of cuts implemented since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, but the Monetary Policy Committee split its vote 3-2, indicating conflicting sentiments within the SARB as it looks to support the recovery while addressing inflation fears.
Headline consumer price index
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