This Indicator Suggests It’s Still Too Early to Bet on Bitcoin Bull Run

cryptonews.com:

In wake of the impressive rally in Bitcoin’s price since the start of the year, multiple technical and on-chain indicators have started flashing green that the bear market of 2022 might be over. For example, Bitcoin’s latest push higher that has seen it recover above $21,000 from its end of 2022 levels around $17,000 has seen the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization break back to the north of its 200-Day Moving Average and Realized Price, both of which sit just under $20,000.

Momentum in new addresses also recently took a turn for the better, with the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) recently jumping above the 200-day SMA, a shift which often occurs at the start of a Bitcoin bull market.

Meanwhile, according to analysis from pseudonymous Twitter account @CryptoHornHairs, Bitcoin appears to be tracking almost exactly in line with a long-term market cycle that repeats itself roughly every four years. According to @CryptoHornHairs, Bitcoin is at the beginning of the bullish stage of the cycle, having just come through a 364-day downturn.

However, investors should note that one key on-chain indicator is not sending bullish signs. Glassnode’s Revenue From Fees Multiple still has a negative 2-year Z-score of around -0.41. The Z-score is the number of standard deviations above or below the mean of a data sample. In this instance, Glassnode’s Z-score is the number of standard deviations above or below the mean Bitcoin Fee Revenue of the last 2-years.

“A sustained uptick in fee revenue as a proportion of the total reward indicates that Bitcoin blocks are full, and there is growing demand for transaction activity,” the crypto analytics firm states. “Given the constrained blocksize of Bitcoin, this has historically