Ukraine’s wheat harvest may fall by 35%, satellite images suggest

theguardian.com:

Wheat production in Ukraine is likely to be at least a third lower than in normal years, according to analysis of satellite images of the country.

Ukraine is one of the world’s major exporters of wheat, but the war is taking a toll on the country’s agriculture and food supplies, sparking fears of shortages or higher prices around the world.

Last year, Ukraine produced about 33m tonnes of wheat, of which it exported about 20m tonnes, making it the sixth-largest exporter globally. This year, according to analysis published on Friday by the satellite company Kayrros, the country has the potential to produce only about 21m tonnes of wheat, down about 23% on the average of the previous five years.

As more disruption from the war is extremely likely, with fighting concentrated in the east where major wheat-growing regions are found, Kayrros estimates that the country’s wheat harvest is likely to be down by about 35% this year.

Ukraine has already moved to ban exports of grain and many other food products, in an effort to preserve its own food supplies. Transport is also difficult, with Russia blockading the country’s Black Sea coast.

Global wheat prices leapt by 20% in March, owing to the direct impacts of the war on wheat production, and the impacts of higher energy prices and fertiliser prices around the world. These were already rising before Russia’s invasion and have been sent soaring further by the impact of the war, as countries have moved to cut imports of oil and gas from Russia.

While prices have since slipped back slightly from their record highs, analysts at Rabobank predict they could rise again due to the war in Ukraine, where it is predicting production could fall by slightly more than 20%, as well as sanctions on