The recent regulatory crackdown has not scared Wall Street asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco from applying to list spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with experts now estimating a 50% chance of approval.
The race to launch an ETF is led by Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and 21Shares, which are seeking to list its product with the ticker ARKB on the CBOE exchange.
The final deadline the SEC has for either approving or denying that listing is January 10, 2024, with multiple earlier deadlines extended coming up before that, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
The ETF sponsored by BlackRock, which is the one that brought new optimism that a spot ETF could be approved, has a final deadline on March 15 the same year.
Notably, Bloomberg’s own team of ETF analysts now estimate that the odds a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved by the SEC is 50-50.
“The SEC has denied such proposals for years, but its recent call for more details signals a greater willingness to engage with applicants,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart in a recent update.
The filing of BlackRock’s ETF application with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 16 has already led to a massive rally for Bitcoin, despite no confirmation or even indication from the SEC that the application will be approved.
Instead, it appears traders are betting that BlackRock, a Wall Street heavyweight with deep political connections, has the influence in Washington that is needed for its application to be approved, regardless of past rejections.
Since June 16, the spot price of Bitcoin is now up by about 22%, from less than $25,600 on the day of the filing to $31,300 as of today, indicating just how bullish the market sees an ETF
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