Trump Has A 17% Chance Of Being In Prison Before Election Day, Polymarket Betters Predict
Republican frontrunner and crypto-friendly U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has a 17% chance of being in jail before voters hit the ballot box in November after being found guilty in his high-profile hush money trial Thursday, according to Polymarket data.
Originally launched in January, the market will resolve to a yes if Trump spends more than 48 hours in prison before 11:59 p.m. on November 5.
Currently, one “yes” vote on the prediction market is going for 18 cents, while a no vote costs 85 cents.
As of Friday morning, the odds of Trump going to prison before then had risen 57%.
News of the market’s popularity comes just one day after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to his 2016 hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
The highly-covered trial lasted six weeks and saw several notable associates of Trump take the witness stand, including his former attorney, Michael Cohen, former Oval Office Operations Director Madeleine Westerhout, and Daniels herself.
“This was a disgrace,” the former U.S. president said shortly after the verdict. “This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.”
Meanwhile, current U.S. President Joe Biden seized the moment to play to voters’ concerns about potentially backing a convicted felon for the presidency.
“A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans’ freedoms and fomenting political violence – and the American people will reject it in November,” the Biden campaign said on Thursday.
Current polls show Biden and Trump are neck-and-neck in the White House race, with a May 30 Marist Poll showing the former narrowly securing a victory over Trump by just 2%.
Trump has largely embraced
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